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Shear wave splitting as a proxy for stress forecast of the case of the 2006 Manyas-Kus Golu (Mb = 5.3) earthquake

Polat, G.; Ozel, N.M.; Crampin, S.; Ergintav, S.; Tan, O.. 2012 Shear wave splitting as a proxy for stress forecast of the case of the 2006 Manyas-Kus Golu (Mb = 5.3) earthquake. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12 (4). 1073-1084. 10.5194/nhess-12-1073-2012

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Abstract/Summary

The 2006 Mb = 5.3 Manyas-Kus Golu (Manyas) earthquake has been retrospectively "stress-forecasted" using variations in time-delays of seismic shear wave splitting to evaluate the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. We processed micro earthquakes recorded by 29 TURDEP (Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High Risk Regions of Turkey) and 33 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) stations in the Marmara region by using the aspect-ratio cross-correlation and systematic analysis of crustal anisotropy methods. The aim of the analysis is to determine changes in delay-times, hence changes in stress, before and after the 2006 Manyas earthquake. We observed that clear decreases in delay times before the impending event, especially at the station GEMT are consistent with the anisotropic poro-elasticity (APE) model of fluid-rock deformation, but we could not observe similar changes at other stations surrounding the main event. The logarithms of the duration of the stress-accumulation are proportional (self-similar) to the magnitude of the impending event. Although time and magnitude of th 2005 Manyas earthquake could have been stress-forecasted, as has been recognized elsewhere, shear-wave splitting does not appear to provide direct information about the location of impending earthquakes.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.5194/nhess-12-1073-2012
Programmes: BGS Programmes 2010 > Earth hazards and systems
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) is an international and interdisciplinary Open Access journal for the publication of original research concerning natural hazards. New perspectives for the understanding and tackling of natural hazards will arise by considering the subject form a broad base where the separate geosciences merge. NHESS serves the community of geoscientists concerned with natural hazards and also those interacted in publishing communications regarding interdisciplinary problems arising from difficulties encountered in the tackling of the mitigation of risks associated with natural hazards.
Date made live: 27 Jun 2012 13:36
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18502

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