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Comment on the report 'Operational earthquake forecasting' by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection

Crampin, Stuart. 2012 Comment on the report 'Operational earthquake forecasting' by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection. Annals of Geophysics, 55 (1). 5-11. 10.4401/ag-5516

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Abstract/Summary

The recently published report Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) presupposes that there is no method for the short-term prediction of large earthquakes that has been demonstrated to be both reliable and skillful. This is no longer correct. Earthquakes can be deterministically stress-forecast by using shear-wave splitting to monitor stress-accumulation in the rock mass surrounding the earthquake source. This new understanding of fluid-rock deformation means that the recommendations of the ICEF Report are no longer appropriate. This comment reviews this new understanding and suggests that the way forward for operational earthquake forecasting in Italy is to install one or more controlled-source three-borehole Stress-Monitoring Sites and use shear-wave splitting to monitor stress-accumulation and stress-forecast all damaging (M ≥ 5) earthquakes in Italy.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.4401/ag-5516
Programmes: BGS Programmes 2010 > Earth hazards and systems
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Annals of Geophysics is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online journal. Annals of Geophysics welcomes contributions on primary research on Seismology, Geodesy, Volcanology, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Oceanography and Climatology, Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism, Geophysics and Tectonophysics, Physics and Chemistry of the Atmosphere. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia applies the Creative Commons Attribution License (CCAL) to all works we publish. Under the CCAL, authors retain ownership of the copyright for their article, but authors allow anyone to download, reuse, reprint, modify, distribute, and/or copy articles in Annals of Geophysics, so long as the original authors and source are cited.
Date made live: 27 Jun 2012 13:01
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18500

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