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Persistent regimes and extreme events of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

Franzke, Christian L.E.. 2013 Persistent regimes and extreme events of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, 371 (1991), 20110471. 21, pp. 10.1098/rsta.2011.0471

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Abstract/Summary

Society is increasingly impacted by natural hazards which cause significant damage in economic and human terms. Many of these natural hazards are weather and climate related. Here, we show that North Atlantic atmospheric circulation regimes affect the propensity of extreme wind speeds in Europe. We also show evidence that extreme wind speeds are long-range dependent, follow a generalized Pareto distribution and are serially clustered. Serial clustering means that storms come in bunches and, hence, do not occur independently. We discuss the use of waiting time distributions for extreme event recurrence estimation in serially dependent time series.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1098/rsta.2011.0471
Programmes: BAS Programmes > Polar Science for Planet Earth (2009 - ) > Environmental Change and Evolution
ISSN: 1364-503X
Additional Keywords: circulation regimes, extremes, long-range dependence, clustering
Date made live: 02 Apr 2012 08:37 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/17492

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