Clarity or confusion?: problems in attributing large-scale ecological changes to anthropogenic drivers
Smart, S.M.; Henrys, P.A.; Purse, B.V.; Murphy, J.M.; Bailey, M.J.; Marrs, R.H.. 2012 Clarity or confusion?: problems in attributing large-scale ecological changes to anthropogenic drivers. Ecological Indicators, 20. 51-56. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.01.022Full text not available from this repository.
Ways of reducing the drivers of global biodiversity loss and degradation of ecosystem services are needed more than ever before. Policy options must be based on the best evidence of the role of multiple driving forces. Increasingly, a significant part of the evidence base comes from attributing signals of biological change detected in large-scale analytical surveys to a range of possible causal factors. We highlight a number of subtle difficulties that can beset the challenge of detecting such correlative relationships. These are as follows: (1) The Modifiable Area Unit Problem. (2) Incomplete explanatory variable data. (3) Lack of control over the replication and crossing of driving variables. In most cases these problems can be avoided by more careful specification of the scientific question and application of relatively new analytical techniques. Ignoring them can lead to mis-specification of hypothesised driver–state–impact relationships and flawed conclusions as to the most important causes of change.
|Item Type:||Publication - Article|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.01.022|
|Programmes:||CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Biodiversity > BD Topic 1 - Observations, Patterns, and Predictions for Biodiversity|
|CEH Sections:||Directors, SPCs
|Additional Keywords:||analytical surveys, monitoring, global change, anthropogenic, biodiversity, ecosystem services, scale|
|NORA Subject Terms:||Ecology and Environment|
|Date made live:||17 Apr 2012 12:48|
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