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Towards Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry

Van Oijen, Marcel; Thomson, Amanda. 2011 Towards Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry. In: White, Th.; Jonas, M.; Nahorski, Z.; Milsson, S., (eds.) Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Dealing with Uncertainty. Springer, 55-67. (Climatic Change, 103 (1-2)).

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Abstract/Summary

The Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United Kingdom currently uses a simple carbon-flow model, CFLOW, to calculate the emissions and removals associated with forest planting since 1920. Here, we aim to determine whether a more complex process-basedmodel, the BASic FORest (BASFOR) simulator, could be used instead of CFLOW. The use of a more complex approach allows spatial heterogeneity in soils and weather to be accounted for, but places extra demands on uncertainty quantification. We show how Bayesian methods can be used to address this problem.

Item Type: Publication - Book Section
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 2 - Biogeochemistry and Climate System Processes > BGC - 2.4 - Develop model frameworks to predict future impact of environmental drivers ...
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 2 - Biogeochemistry and Climate System Processes > BGC - 2.1 - Quantify & model processes that control the emission, fate and bioavailability of pollutants
CEH Sections: Billett (to November 2013)
ISBN: 9789400716698
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: This chapter is reprinted from Climatic Change 2010 103(1-2) 55-67)
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Earth Sciences
Date made live: 13 Mar 2012 14:41
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/17119

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