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Hydrological analysis for water level projections in Taihu Lake, China

Liu, L.; Xu, Z.X.; Reynard, N.S.; Hu, C.W.; Jones, R.G.. 2013 Hydrological analysis for water level projections in Taihu Lake, China. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 6 (1). 14-22. 10.1111/jfr3.12015

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Abstract/Summary

Changes in precipitation can be expected to have a major influence on the frequency and severity of flooding in the Taihu Basin. As part of an integrated assessment of flood risk in the Taihu Basin, this paper addresses the hydrological conditions and the potential impacts of climate change on Taihu Lake water levels. The hydrological system is simulated by using the distributed hydrological model VIC, with future climate scenarios generated by the regional climate model PRECIS. The results indicate that maximum and mean flood water levels under the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2021-2050 will be higher than the levels during the baseline period (1961-1990), with larger increases under the B2 scenario than for the the A2 scenario. The storm return periods leading to extreme water levels in the Taihu Lake in the future is projected to decrease significantly in comparison to the baseline period, implying the potential for the more frequent occurrence of major floods. These results indicate the importance of planning for future flood control in the Taihu Basin.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1111/jfr3.12015
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
CEH Sections: Reynard
ISSN: 1753-318X
Additional Keywords: scenario analysis, climate change, anthropogenic activities, flood, hydrological simulation, Taihu Lake
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 12 Dec 2012 12:10
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/16416

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