Comparing predicted against measured steroid estrogen concentrations and the associated risk in two United Kingdom river catchments
Williams, Richard J.; Churchley, John H.; Kanda, Rakesh; Johnson, Andrew C. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1570-3764.
2012
Comparing predicted against measured steroid estrogen concentrations and the associated risk in two United Kingdom river catchments.
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 31 (4).
892-898.
10.1002/etc.1756
Abstract/Summary
Predicted concentrations of estrone, 17β-estradiol and 17α-ethinylestradiol generated from a Geographical information system-based model (LF2000-WQX) have previously been used to assess the risk of causing intersex in male fish in the rivers of England and Wales. Little measured data of sufficient quality and spatial extent have been available to verify this risk assessment. New measured data have been collected from sewage treatment plant effluents and the receiving waters upstream and downstream of these discharges from the Erewash and the Avon river systems in England, UK. The model results for these rivers were in good agreement with the measured values in terms of estradiol equivalents. Critically, the risk assessment based on the measured data gave a near identical risk assessment to that from the modeled results. For individual estrogens, 17α-ethinylestradiol was modeled best and estrone worst. Poor simulations reflected poor estimates of the effluent concentrations, which were more variable from day-to-day and between works of nominally similar type than is assumed in the model. In support of this, model results for the River Erewash calculated using observed effluent concentrations were in excellent agreement with the measured data. The model has proved to be adequate in predicting overall estrogenic potency, and hence risk, along these rivers; however, improvements are possible, particularly in predicting sewage treatment plant removal efficiency and therefore effluent concentrations.
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