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Translating UKCP09: FCERM-specific projections. Draft

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.; Reynard, N.S.; Lamb, R.. 2011 Translating UKCP09: FCERM-specific projections. Draft. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 39pp. (UNSPECIFIED) (Unpublished)

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Abstract/Summary

The UK Climate Projections, UKCP09, represent a step-change in the availability of climate change information to UK decision makers. The increased sophistication of the science has made much more information available on climate change projections, bringing with it added challenges in ensuring that the projections are used appropriately by staff in the Environment Agency and its partner organisations. This report presents climate change impacts projections for peak flows in river catchments, making use of UKCP09 information. The work reported here builds on and extends the scenario-neutral approach to understanding the impacts of climate change on flood flows developed in the Defra research project FD2020. The analysis makes use of the UKCP09 Sampled Data outputs and compares this with modelling approaches based on other UKCP09 products. Whilst confirming the value of the scenario-neutral sensitivity approach, the work also illustrates the scope for using other approaches with a range of UKCP09 outputs. Although the results are most directly applicable to flood risk management, this report also explains different approaches to using some of the more complex UKCP09 products. It is potentially useful for anyone thinking about modelling other aspects of river flow, such as mean or low flows, and probably other variables that require an intermediate impacts model to understand the impacts of projected climate change. The report forms a part of a set of products developed under the Environment Agency Evidence Project SC080004 Translating UKCP09. The project aims to help the Environment Agency to use UKCP09 appropriately and consistently, to support better decision making and to enable the Environment Agency and its partners to communicate climate change effectively with external stakeholders. The methods and results presented in this document include reference to outputs from UKCP09 that are discussed further in other material produced as part of SC080004, including user guidance, training materials, analysis of key messages about the UKCP09 projections and a set of case studies.

Item Type: Publication - Report (UNSPECIFIED)
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Water > WA Topic 1 - Variability and Change in Water Systems > WA - 1.3 - Model, attribute and predict impacts of climate and land cover change on hydrological and freshwater systems
CEH Sections: Reynard
Funders/Sponsors: Environment Agency
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Hydrology
Date made live: 15 Feb 2012 16:15
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14605

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