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Mechanisms of long-term decline in size of lesser sandeels in the North Sea explored using a growth and phenology model

Frederiksen, Morten; Elston, David A.; Edwards, Martin; Mann, Alec D.; Wanless, Sarah. 2011 Mechanisms of long-term decline in size of lesser sandeels in the North Sea explored using a growth and phenology model. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 432. 137-147. 10.3354/meps09177

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Abstract/Summary

The lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus is a key species in the North Sea ecosystem, transferring energy from planktonic producers to top predators. Previous studies have shown a long-term decline in the size of 0-group sandeels in the western North Sea, but they were unable to pinpoint the mechanism (later hatching, slower growth or changes in size-dependent mortality) or cause. To investigate the first 2 possibilities we combined 2 independent time series of sandeel size, namely data from chick-feeding Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica and from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), in a novel statistical model implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model estimated annual mean length on 1 July, as well as hatching date and growth rate for sandeels from 1973 to 2006. Mean length-at-date declined by 22% over this period, corresponding to a 60% decrease in energy content, with a sharper decline since 2002. Up to the mid-1990s, the decline was associated with a trend towards later hatching. Subsequently, hatching became earlier again, and the continued trend towards smaller size appears to have been driven by lower growth rates, particularly in the most recent years, although we could not rule out changes in size-dependent mortality. Our findings point to major changes in key aspects of sandeel life history, which we ­consider are most likely due to direct and indirect temperature-related changes over a range of biotic factors, including the seasonal distribution of copepods and intra- and inter-specific competition with planktivorous fish. The results have implications both for the many predators of sandeels and for age and size of maturation in this aggregation of North Sea sandeels.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3354/meps09177
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biodiversity > BD Topic 1 - Observations, Patterns, and Predictions for Biodiversity > BD - 1.3 - Long-term/large-scale monitoring and experiments ...
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biodiversity > BD Topic 3 - Managing Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Environment > BD - 3.1 - Develop methods to quantify the link between biodiversity ..
CEH Sections: Watt
CEH fellows
ISSN: 0171-8630
Additional Keywords: Ammodytes marinus, growth model, MCMC, North Sea, phenology, sandeel
NORA Subject Terms: Marine Sciences
Biology and Microbiology
Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 02 Aug 2011 14:12
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14593

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