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On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability

Franzke, Christian; Woollings, Tim. 2011 On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability. Journal of Climate, 24 (2). 466-472. 10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1

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Abstract/Summary

The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1
Programmes: BAS Programmes > Polar Science for Planet Earth (2009 - ) > Environmental Change and Evolution
ISSN: 0894-8755
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live: 13 May 2011 12:23
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050

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