How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.. 2010 How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L07703. 5, pp. 10.1029/2010GL042947

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Abstract/Summary

Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12-20 years. A 21st century with the lowest level of solar irradiance over the last 9300 years results in negligible difference to sea level rise

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2010GL042947
Programmes:	Oceans 2025 > Climate, ocean circulation and sea level
ISSN:	0094-8276
Additional Keywords:	LAST MILLENNIUM; CLIMATE; SEA LEVEL RISE
NORA Subject Terms:	Marine Sciences
Date made live:	21 Jun 2011 14:46 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/13933

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1029/2010GL042947

Programmes:

Oceans 2025 > Climate, ocean circulation and sea level

ISSN:

0094-8276

Additional Keywords:

LAST MILLENNIUM; CLIMATE; SEA LEVEL RISE

NORA Subject Terms:

Marine Sciences