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La prévision hydro-météorologique à 3-6 mois. Etat des connaissances et applications. (Seasonal forecasting of river-flows - State-of-the-art and applications)

Sauquet, Eric; Lerat, Julien; Prudhomme, Christel. 2007 La prévision hydro-météorologique à 3-6 mois. Etat des connaissances et applications. (Seasonal forecasting of river-flows - State-of-the-art and applications). In: Congres SHF - Gestion sociale et économique de l'eau - Comment agir sur la demande?, Paris, 17-18 Oct 2007.

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Abstract/Summary

This paper focuses on the methodology and tools used in seasonal forecasting of river flows. After a brief state of the art, two applications for predicting low flows of French rivers are presented. The first one aims at forecasting the probability of occurrence of severe droughts using weather typing within hydrologically homogeneous regions. The relatively poor quality of results in validation suggests that France may not be well suited for this type of approach. The second approach is applied to the Rhine River. The rainfall-runoff model GR4J combined with the HBV snow module is forced by a stochastic rainfall generator to provide daily river flows on seven sub-basins for the following 90 days. Results show that a reliable mid term forecasting (< 30 days) is possible in the lower catchment but the tool is not able to anticipate low flows in the upper catchment.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Paper)
Programmes: CEH Programmes pre-2009 publications > Water > WA01 Water extremes > WA01.1 New methodologies to quantify floods, flows and droughts
CEH Sections: Harding (to 31.07.11)
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: In French
Additional Keywords: Seasonal forecasting, drought
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 12 Dec 2007 12:09
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/1374

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