Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections

Jackson, Christopher R.; Meister, Rakia; Prudhomme, Christel. 2011 Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology, 399 (1-2). 12-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028

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Abstract/Summary

Projections of climate for the 2080s from an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) run under a medium–high (A2) emissions scenario are used to simulate changes in groundwater resources of a Chalk aquifer in central-southern England. Few studies that have investigated the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources have addressed uncertainty. In this paper the uncertainty associated with use of a suite of GCM outputs in catchment scale impact studies is quantified. A range of predictions is obtained by applying precipitation and temperature change factors, derived from thirteen GCMs, to a distributed recharge model and a groundwater flow model of the Chalk aquifer of the Marlborough and Berkshire Downs and south-west Chilterns in the UK. The ensemble average suggests there will be a 4.9% reduction in annual potential groundwater recharge across the study area, although this is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The spread of results for simulated changes in annual potential groundwater recharge range from a 26% decrease to a 31% increase by the 2080s, with ten predicting a decrease and three an increase. Whilst annual recharge is not found to change significantly, the multi-model results suggest that the seasonal variation in the groundwater resource will be greater, with higher recharge rates during a reduced period of time in winter. The spread of predictions for changes in river baseflow, at the bottom of the largest river sub-catchment, is from −16 to +33% in March and from −68 to −56% in October. The effects of climate change are shown to depend significantly on the type of land-use. It is concluded that further research is required to quantify the effect of different vegetation types on Chalk covered by different thicknesses of soil and their response to a changing climate.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028
Programmes:	BGS Programmes 2010 > Groundwater Science CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water
ISSN:	0022-1694
Additional Keywords:	Groundwater resources; Chalk; Climate change; Global climate model; Uncertainty, GroundwaterBGS, Groundwater, Groundwater modelling, Environmental change, Major aquifers
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology Earth Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/groundwate...
Date made live:	18 Feb 2011 11:44 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/13494

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