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Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Edwards, Neil R.; Cameron, David; Rougier, Jonathan. 2011 Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model. Climate Dynamics, 37 (7-8). 1469-1482. 10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0

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Abstract/Summary

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwater-forcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Biogeochemistry
CEH Sections: Billett
ISSN: 0930-7575
Additional Keywords: uncertainty, probabilistic prediction, thermohaline circulation, intermediate complexity climate model
NORA Subject Terms: Earth Sciences
Date made live: 20 Oct 2011 11:03
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/13364

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