nerc.ac.uk

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

Clark, J.M.; Billett, M.F.; Coyle, M.; Croft, S.; Daniels, S.; Evans, C.D.; Evans, M.; Freeman, C.; Gallego-Sala, A.V.; Heinemeyer, A.; House, J.I.; Monteith, D.T.; Nayak, D.; Orr, H.G.; Prentice, I.C.; Rose, R.; Rowson, J.; Smith, J.U.; Smith, P.; Tun, Y.M.; Vanguelova, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Worrall, F.. 2010 Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099). Climate Research, 45. 227-248. 10.3354/cr00974

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract/Summary

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3354/cr00974
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 1 - Monitoring and Interpretation of Biogeochemical and Climate Changes > BGC - 1.3 - Quantify & attribute changes in biogeochemiical cycles ...
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 2 - Biogeochemistry and Climate System Processes > BGC - 2.3 - Determine land-climate feedback processes to improve climate model predictions
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 1 - Monitoring and Interpretation of Biogeochemical and Climate Changes > BGC - 1.1 - Monitor concentrations, fluxes, physico-chemical forms of current and emerging pollutants ...
CEH Sections: Billett
Emmett
Parr
ISSN: 0936-577X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: This issue of Climate Change is Open Access. Pleae click on the OFFICIAL URL to access full text.
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Ecology and Environment
Hydrology
Date made live: 07 Mar 2011 15:44
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/13093

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item