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Solar activity levels in 2100

Clilverd, Mark A.; Clarke, Ellen; Rishbeth, Henry; Clark, Toby D.G.; Ulich, Thomas. 2003 Solar activity levels in 2100. Astronomy and Geophysics, 44 (5). 20-22. 10.1046/j.1468-4004.2003.44520.x

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Abstract/Summary

We consider the likely levels of solar activity in 2100 by analysing the previous history of long-term solar and geomagnetic activity indices. We make use of superposed periods of similar variations in atmospheric cosmogenic radiocarbon that have occurred during the last 11000 years, as derived from various proxies such as tree rings. This leads us to conclude that solar activity is peaking at about the present epoch, and we expect solar activity in 2100 to resemble that in 1900 when a small minimum in solar activity took place, rather than increasing as has occurred in the last 100 years. The occurrence of major geomagnetic storms will decline to about one-third of the present level.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1046/j.1468-4004.2003.44520.x
Programmes: BAS Programmes > Antarctic Science in the Global Context (2000-2005) > Geospace Atmosphere Transfer Functions
ISSN: 1366-8781
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live: 20 Feb 2012 10:48
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/12612

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