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Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry

Van Oijen, Marcel; Thomson, Amanda. 2010 Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry. Climatic Change, 103. 55-67. 10.1007/s10584-010-9917-3

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Abstract/Summary

The Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United Kingdom currently uses a simple carbon-flow model, CFLOW, to calculate the emissions and removals associated with forest planting since 1920. Here, we aim to determine whether a more complex process-basedmodel, the BASic FORest (BASFOR) simulator, could be used instead of CFLOW. The use of a more complex approach allows spatial heterogeneity in soils and weather to be accounted for, but places extra demands on uncertainty quantification. We show how Bayesian methods can be used to address this problem.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1007/s10584-010-9917-3
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 1 - Monitoring and Interpretation of Biogeochemical and Climate Changes > BGC - 1.3 - Quantify & attribute changes in biogeochemiical cycles ...
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 2 - Biogeochemistry and Climate System Processes > BGC - 2.4 - Develop model frameworks to predict future impact of environmental drivers ...
CEH Sections: Billett (to 30 Nov 2013)
ISSN: 0165-0009
NORA Subject Terms: Agriculture and Soil Science
Ecology and Environment
Data and Information
Date made live: 19 Oct 2010 14:40
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11648

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