UK regional scale modelling of natural geohazards and climate change

For over 10 years, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has been investigating geotechnical and mineralogical factors controlling volume change behaviour of UK clay soils and mudrocks. A strong understanding of the relationship between these parameters and the clays' shrink-swell properties has been developed. More recently, partly resulting from concerns of users of this knowledge, a study of the relationships between climate change and shrink-swell behaviour over the last 30 years has been carried out. Information on subsidence insurance claims has been provided by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) and the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) historical climate station data has also been utilised. This is being combined with the BGS's GeoSure national geohazard data, to build a preliminary GIS model to provide an understanding of the susceptibility of the Tertiary London Clay to climate change. This paper summarises the data analysis and identifies future work for model construction and refinement.