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IHMS –Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 2. Application of linked unsaturated, DiCaSM and saturated zone, MODFLOW models on Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus

Ragab, Ragab; Bromley, John; Dörflinger, Gerald; Katsikides, Savvas. 2010 IHMS –Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 2. Application of linked unsaturated, DiCaSM and saturated zone, MODFLOW models on Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus. Hydrological Processes, 24. 2681-2692. 10.1002/hyp.7682

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Abstract/Summary

The integrated hydrological modeling system, IHMS, has been described in details in part 1of this paper. The system comprises three models: DiCaSM, MODFLOW (v96 and v2000) and SWI. The Distributed Catchment scale model DiCaSM, simulates different components of the unsaturated zone water balance, including groundwater recharge. The recharge output from DiCaSM is used as input to the saturated zone model MODFLOW which subsequently calculates groundwater flows and head distributions. The main objectives of this paper are: 1) to show the way in which more accurate predictions of groundwater levels in two Cyprus catchments can be obtained using improved estimates of groundwater recharge from the catchment water balance, and 2) to demonstrate the interface utility that simulates communication between unsaturated and saturated zone models and allows the transmission of data between the two models at the required spatial and temporal scales. The linked models can be used to predict the impact of future climate change on surface and groundwater resources and to estimate the future water supply shortfall in the island up to 2050. The DiCaSM unsaturated zone model was successfully calibrated and validated against stream flows with reasonable values for goodness of fit as shown by Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. Groundwater recharge obtained from the successful tests was applied at various spatial and temporal scales to the Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus. These recharge values produced good estimates of groundwater levels in both catchments. Once calibrated, the model was run using a number of possible future climate change scenarios. The results showed that by 2050, groundwater and surface water supplies would decrease by 35% and 24% for Kouris and 20% and 17% for Akrotiri, respectively. The gap between water supply and demand showed a linear increase with time. The results suggest that IHMS can be used as an effective tool for water authorities and decision makers to help balance demand and supply on the island.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1002/hyp.7682
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Water > WA Topic 2 - Ecohydrological Processes
CEH Sections: Acreman
ISSN: 0885-6087
Additional Keywords: IHMS model, DiCaSM model, Climate Change, Cyprus, Kouris, Akrotiri, water resources
Date made live: 30 Sep 2010 11:39
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11217

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