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The use of modelling to predict levels of estrogens in a river catchment: How does modelled data compare with chemical analysis and in vitro yeast assay results?

Balaam, Jan L.; Grover, Darren; Johnson, Andrew C.; Jurgens, Monika; Readman, James; Smith, Andy J.; White, Stefan; Williams, Richard; Zhou, John L.. 2010 The use of modelling to predict levels of estrogens in a river catchment: How does modelled data compare with chemical analysis and in vitro yeast assay results? Science of the Total Environment, 408 (20). 4826-4832. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.07.019

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Abstract/Summary

Effluent discharges at Rodbourne sewage treatment works (STWs) were assessed using chemical and in vitro biological analysis as well as modelling predictions. Results showed that Rodbourne STW discharged less estrone (E1) than expected, but similar 17β-estradiol (E2) and 17α-ethinyl estradiol (EE2) to those predicted by a widely cited effluent prediction model. The Exposure Analysis Modelling System (EXAMS) model was set up using measured effluent concentrations as its starting point to predict estrogen concentrations along a 10 km length of the receiving water of the River Ray. The model adequately simulated estrogen concentrations along the river when compared to July 2007 measured data. The model predicted combined estrogen equivalents in reasonable agreement with estrogenicity as measured by passive sampler (POCIS) extracts using the yeast estrogen screen. Using gauged mean flow values for 2007 the model indicated that the most important determinand for estrogen exposure in the Ray was not season, but proximity to the Rodbourne effluent. Thus, fish in the first 3 km downstream of Rodbourne were typically exposed to two or even three times more estrogens than those living 7–10 km further downstream. The modelling indicated that, assuming the effluent estrogen concentrations measured in February 2008 were typical, throughout the year the whole length of the Ray downstream of Rodbourne would be estrogenic, i.e.exceeding the 1 ng/L E2 equivalent threshold for endocrine disruption.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.07.019
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biodiversity > BD Topic 3 - Managing Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Environment > BD - 3.3 - Develop integrated environmental assessments and modelling ...
CEH Sections: Acreman
Boorman
ISSN: 0048-9697
Additional Keywords: effluent, modelling, POCIS, estrogens, EXAMS
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Hydrology
Date made live: 07 Sep 2010 15:01
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/10510

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