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MAGIC, SAFE and SMART model applications at Integrated Monitoring sites: effects of emission reduction scenarios

Forsius, M.; Alveteg, M.; Jenkins, A.; Johansson, M.; Kleemola, S.; Lukewille, A.; Posch, M.; Sverdrup, H.; Walse, C.. 1998 MAGIC, SAFE and SMART model applications at Integrated Monitoring sites: effects of emission reduction scenarios. In: Wieder, R.Kelman; Novak, Martin; Cerny, Jiri, (eds.) Biogeochemical investigations at the watershed, landscape and regional scales. Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer, 21-30.

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Abstract/Summary

Three well-known dynamic acidification models (MAGIC, SAFE, SMART) were applied to data sets from five Integrated Monitoring sites in Europe. The calibrated models were used in a policy-oriented framework to predict the long-term soil acidification of these background forest sites, given different scenarios of future deposition of S and N. Emphasis was put on deriving realistic site-specific scenarios for the model applications. The deposition was calculated with EMEP transfer matrices and official emissions for the target years 2000, 2005 and 2010. The alternatives for S deposition were current reduction plans and maximum feasible reductions. For N, the NOx and NHy depositions were frozen at the present level. For NOx, a reduction scenario of flat 30% reduction from present deposition also was utilized to demonstrate the possible effects of such a measure. The three models yielded generally consistent results. The Best prediction-scenario (including the effects of the second UN/ECE protocol for reductions of SO2 emissions and present level for NOx-emissions), resulted in many cases in a stabilization of soil acidification, although significant improvements were not always shown. With the exception of one site, the Maximum Feasible Reductions scenario always resulted in significant improvements. Dynamic models are needed as a complement to steady-state techniques for estimating critical loads and assessing emission reduction policies, where adequate data are available.

Item Type: Publication - Book Section
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1023/A:1005099930089
Programmes: CEH Programmes pre-2009 publications > Other
CEH Sections: _ Pre-2000 sections
ISBN: 0792351673
Additional Keywords: acidification, emission, MAGIC, model, nitrogen, SAFE, SMART, sulfur
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live: 15 Oct 2007 15:04
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/1012

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